Category: Dinar Alert

June 25, 2013

Kap / Tlar & Dinar Alert Member Discussion

AdminBob The opening of the first branch of an American Bank in Iraq

2013/06/24 11: 24 Range/Baghdad

Citigroup announced American banking Citigroup Monday, opening an Office in Baghdad, becoming the first US Bank expands services to include Iraq, the pro-peace momentum created in this step to long-term economic opportunities in the oil-rich country.

And Citigroup Citigroup said in a statement carried by the British Financial Times newspaper and seen, (range), therefore, the Bank will open on Monday, the first formal Office in Baghdad after winning initial approval from the Central Bank of Iraq “. FULL ARTICLE & LINK BELOW

Timsters: o if citi bank is open in iraq then they would be one of the first to cash us out in the US .am i right? tim
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AdminBob: Timster. http://dinaralert.webs.com/apps/forums/topics/show/9081624-best-way-to-cash-in-

2COLLECTG: opened this morning! getting ready for the come back of the dinar excited yet?

here comes the rate no doubt!     –i bought this stuff for a penny i just want to sell mine back for a dime!

Norway: So when THIS NEW bank opens up and possibly Barkleys from England, what will be inside the ATM’s? EUROS? DOLLARS? Sure can not see 25000 notes coming out to buy coffee.

Timsters: thanks bob i knew that but was wandering just how long it would take to get into one of the dealers . i feel when this hits there is gonna be a long wait to get into cash out ..and im gonna get an ulser waiting for my turn .being scared to death im gonna miss out on cash in if maliki is still in control trying his best to stop all dinar increases.     tim

Punisher: Norway that is a very good question and this news about CitiBank is very exciting…

Tlar: When the Paul Bremmer Provisional government first was installed, one of there very first acts was to have a consortium of US banks build what is the CBI today.

These US banks were considered the big banks. Chase, Bank of America and I believe Citi were all involved with the resurrection of the banking system in Iraq.

The first two were for sure and unless memory fails me Citi was a part of this. It is a very good sign that Citi is coming back into Iraq 10 years later to set up shop.

This will follow that all the big four will come behind Citi especially if Citi is not targeted by extremists and starts to show any activity.

I see this as the first toe in the water and it definitely means more to our cause than just a bank opening. IMO Citi would not be coming in at this time unless they believed that Chapter VII is all but gone and the dinar is ready to pop.

We should see more articles like this as outside banks start to jockey for position because of the expected economic windfall that’s coming.

Punisher: This is basically the news of the day! How can it get better than this for a Monday!!!

Juliebug: Thank you Tlar! I always love positive news on a Monday. It’s a nice start to the week!

HandOverFist:    My thought is that Citibank would be a good place to hold some currency, denominated in dinar, for future appreciation.

Punisher: CitiBank beat WF and BOA to the punch.

Freedomwish:    HOLY COW! Is this really happening?

Punisher: Yes…the dots are finally being connected!

Punisher: After Thursday I think more banks will move into Iraq at warp speed.

Framer: Punisher who knows but maybe boa and wf are already there. This article kind of snuck up on us. Citi is already going to be open for business on monday. Who know how further the other banks are. When somebody tells me not to get excited after reading these articles then their not reading the same articles that im reading. These are very exciting times right now

Kaperoni:            CitiBank is the first US bank to come into Iraq. The article states this. Most US banks are conservative in nature..WF for sure is. I don’t expect them to get in for years.

2COLLECTG: i guess you don`t understand moons statement is what citi group heard return to former international status prior to 1990! they citi heard moon loud and clear!

-        i bought this stuff for a penny i just want to sell mine back for a dime!

Framer: It takes longer then.a.week to get a bank up and running and citi bank is opening its doors on monday. What im trying to say who knows how far the other banks are to moving in. It could be tomorrow it could be a year from now we just dont how far along they really are

Punisher: Framer, I agree …Exciting times indeed.

Ozoftacoma:      My understanding is that BofA is already in and will open their branch fairly quickly. One thing to think about is that do you think that Citi would have opened their branch 3 days before the announcement of the UN meeting/signing to get Iraq out of ch7 if they didn’t see that there was no doubt about the lifting of ch7?

And with 2 of the original 4 already back in Baghdad, how soon will the others get in there so as not to lose out on what is already on it’s way? Totally exciting news!

FULL ARTICLE & LINKS BELOW:

AdminBob The opening of the first branch of an American Bank in Iraq

2013/06/24 11: 24 Range/Baghdad

It quoted Executive Director of Citigroup in Europe, Middle East and Africa James Coles as saying that “Iraq is an important market with a great futuristic capabilities over time.

The Bank said in a statement that “Dennis flannery, former financial attache to the u.s. Embassy in Baghdad who ran the Office of Citibank for Iraq’s interests in Oman since its founding two years ago, the Office will be headed by Baghdad.”

The Bank said that “there are plans to open additional offices in Erbil and Basra to provide services to customers of the Bank within the banking activities”, pointing out that “this is the first business to Citigroup in a new country for six years”

In his statement, the Bank said “over the last decade the Bank used to fund big investors and companies working in Iraq by giving them funds and cash investment banking and management through regional branches in the Dubai Office in Oman and Iraq through its branch in London.

The Bank stressed that “this step comes to establish a physical presence in the Iraqi market in conjunction with the aspiration of the top oil companies, industry and global investment in the reconstruction of Iraq.”

According to economic analysts, speculation in a US Bank Citigroup, “the expansion of the country’s oil sector growth will turn Iraq into one of the largest oil exporters in the world over the next decade and economic powerhouse worth 2 trillion dollars by 2050″.

And Citigroup operates banks in the Middle East for almost 50 years and provides services in 11 countries including Egypt, Kuwait and the U.A.E., and also provides services for consumers in the U.A.E. and Egypt and Bahrain and Pakistan, and is one of four banks that help Government collect $ 800 million for the financing of powered road traffic fees in the future. LINK

As banks eye Iraq, Citi plans office in Baghdad

By ADAM SCHRECK | Associated Press BAGHDAD (AP) — Citigroup Inc. is set to become the first American bank to open an office of its own in Baghdad, highlighting financial firms’ growing interest in Iraq a decade after the U.S.-led 2003 invasion.

Executives say the representative office Citi has received preliminary approval for will help support its corporate customers in Iraq and act as a liaison for companies looking to do business there.

British bank Standard Chartered is also making a push in Iraq with plans to open branches in three cities.

Tlar & Dinar Alert Member Discussion

Directed to sell the dollar by 1183 in all the private banks

23.06.2013 Author Muhannad David

Integrity electronic – Baghdad confirmed the Association of Iraqi banks seeking continuing to reduce the exchange rates of the dollar against the dinar, through the mechanisms of joint cooperation with the Central Bank of Iraq, which organizes daily meetings between representatives of the private banks and specialists in the central bank.

said President of the Association of Iraqi banks Adnan Chalabi: that the initiative of the Association of private banks at the invitation of private banks to reduce the dollar exchange rate contributed to the decline gradually exchange rates, although relatively,
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pointing out that the mechanics work painted with by the Central Bank and the Association tends to reach the exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar to normal rates. adding that the three banks have responded to the call Association and started since last week to sell the dollar to citizens at 1183 instead of 1189,

pointing out that the banks of Assyria, Baghdad, and Huda responded to the calls of the Association, which launched in collaboration with the Central Bank of Iraq. ,

and pointed out that the 25 banks waged an extra start this week to sell the dollar new price (1183) Thus, the number of private banks, which reduced the dollar exchange rate (28) banks, adding this figure to rise even further to include all local banks and branches of banks operating in the country.

http://www.alestiqama.com/news.php?cat=business&id=2466

Carrello: This thread may help you:
http://dinaralert.webs.com/apps/forums/topics/show/9093365

Tlar:     The CBI is attempting to muscle the private banks to sell the dinar at 1189 but those banks that are assisting the CBI are selling at 1183 which is even lower than requested in order to show cooperation.

A private bank is a for profit entity meaning that they expect to make a return on capital invested.

Recently there was a couple of articles that showed some of the private banks were favoring speculators over regular bank clients. Their motivation was profit.

Quite simply selling the dollar for more than the program rate was an easier way for these banks to make a profit than trying to conduct normal bank business. A for profit institution is allowed to sell a product for as much as demand will bear.

This assumes that the playing field is leveled through competition and price will seek the most efficient level to meet demand based on supply available.

This is why the CBI is asking not telling these banks to please sell their dollars at or near the program rate. There is no law to make them do this, only the desire to appease and look like they are cooperating with the CBI. There is forty something banks in Iraq.

Iraq is a big country and forty some banks is not very many banks. Unlike western countries that have a competitor bank on every corner, some of Iraq’s banks are spread pretty thin making for a local monopoly of sorts serving the local population around that bank.

The problem is still demand and greed. If there was no body buying these dollars from the Iraqi’s that are standing in line to acquire them, this problem could be solved through saturation and price based on supply and demand and competition would take over.

The CBI has a unique problem in that it’s neighbor Iran and Syria, are the ones who are buying these dollars and since they cannot just walk into the bank and purchase them, they have created a second tier market that is more than the program rate.

So it appears no matter how many dollars the CBI throws out in order to flood the market with supply, Iran continues to buy them. Another article said that 80% of the dollars that the CBI floods the market with are smuggled to Iran.

This is why Iraq has been unable to saturate the supply side of this equation This is a problem that the CBI has now been trying to control for 60-70 days.

They limited the banks able to participate in the auctions, they have tried controlling the end sales through these banks, they have linked with the customers to try to stem the flow, they have first tried to limit the supply and now are attempting to flood supply and still this is a disparity in the rates.

They have removed bank licenses of blatant violators in an attempt to show both will and muscle all to no avail. This latest attempt to ask all the banks to voluntarily sell the dinar at 1189/1183 I hope will work.

I am a skeptic on its results though because remember, if they cannot get everyone on board and if everyone does not hold at these prices, then it will fail. Another thing that this CBI’s plan is not doing which I think is wrong, is it does not deal with the root cause, that is the demand brought on by Iran and Syria.

IMHO tier two, the purchase of these dollars outside of the bank is the true street rate. Even if an Iraqi can buy a US dollar at 1183 he just runs down the street and resells it to a broker for the then going price above 1183.

This I believe to be the true street rate, not the artificially low rate the bank sold it to the Iraqi for. I said before when they announced this new plan and had three volunteer banks start selling at 1183, this plan IMO will just make it easier and a little cheaper for Iran and Syria to loot Iraq of their hard currency.

IMO to stop all of this nonsense, the CBI will have to use the nuclear option at great risk to Turki.

I stand by this because every plan they attempt to bring the rates together is a fatally flawed plan as long as it doesn’t deal with the cause. Sanctions are still on Iran and Syria and as long as both of these countries desperately need Iraq’s dollars because their own currencies have all but collapsed they will seek them in Iraq.

Dr. Nan Ok, so is this as good as it appears? The rate is down to 1183 so this means the street rate and the program rate are coming together? Kap? Tlar? Explain please. So, Tlar, this was your way of saying, “No, it isn’t as good as it looks”?

Dr. Nan: And seems I remember, Tlar, you were the one who explained that the program rate and the street rate need to be within about 2% before they can even consider doing anything else. Have you changed your mind?

WEDREAM:        yes Nan IMHO this is great news simplified… IMO the big picture is that they are trying to get all the banks on the same page using the same “mechanism” they will need this particular coordination when the float begins…. not all is as it is reported in the news. hope that simplifies the rhetoric . but as i said thats just my opinion. by coordinating all banks it will mean less impact on said banks profit margin in the event of a float.

June 19, 2013

Part 2 Enorrste / Tlar & Dinar Alert Member Discussion

Tlar: Thanks BNA13. I will take another look at it.

Tlar: BNA, your good. It appears to be all there. It will take quite a while to add it all up. I wish that I had figured this out early on. I would be easy to maintain daily once I have a base to work with Your very smart so I would like to ask you, is there an easy way to add these numbers since October of last year or just grunt it out? Either way you have provided me the tool to get my answer. Thanks again.

BNA13: Grunt it out brother.:) If someone figures out an easier way, I hope they tell us.

Hacker: You just need the cash column added correct?

Punisher: You guys are brainiacs…good luck and come rv! Thanks for putting in some extra work for the members guys It is appreciated.

Tlar: Hacker, Carrello has offered to build a spread sheet beginning in October of 2012 and to keep it current from there daily. I have graciously accepted her offer and would like to thank her. I don’t know how to set up a spread sheet because I am just this side of computer illiterate.
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Hacker: Thanks Carrello, you will be quicker than me. I am sure you will share your results. I am very curious

Enorrste: My take on this article is that the CBI is stating that their CURRENT money supply of 33 trillion dinars, which is worth about $30 billion, is covered by 2.5 times with their $80 billion in reserves. In other words, their current money supply has 250% coverage.

The US, in contrast, has about 10% coverage in reserve for all of the dollars around the world.

Having said that, let’s assume that Iraq does what it says it will do and withdraws the large denominated notes beginning in January of 2014. We can reasonably suspect that about 7 trillion dinars are outside of the country.

This would mean, then, that they would withdraw about 26 trillion dinars from circulation. Of course these dinars will have to be replaced, as they have said (otherwise they would have NO dinars in the country) and they have stated that they will issue 25 Billion dinars to replace the 26 trillion that they remove.

Now, let’s go one step farther. The new money supplied within the country will amount to 25 billion dinars. If, as they say, they allow the VALUE of the dinar to rise to “about $1), then if they have $80 billion worth of reserves at that time, then they will have over 300% coverage of their money supply, in country.

Furthermore, they could allow the dinar to go to $3 per dinar and still have over 100% coverage of their money, keeping them as the strongest currency in the world.

So what happens with the 7 trillion dinars outside the country? They are cashed in by speculators and end up as reserves by the countries that cash them in.

Just as their are trillions of dollars sitting as reserves around the world (i.e., not a concern to our country), similarly there will be trillions of dinars sitting as reserves around the world and Iraq will not need to be concerned about them.

In short, they will never return to haunt Iraq any more than our dollars have returned to haunt the US.

This plan has existed for over 10 years now, and is about to come to fruition. This article is stating that they are now ready, in my opinion.

They will announce a float and draw in the dinars within the country during the next 6 months to 2 1/2 years, and replace them with new small denominated notes as the value rises and the smaller notes become necessary for commerical activity within the country.

They are on record that this will take about 2 years beginning in 2014. Furthermore, they are on record that the issuance of the NEW currency will occur in January of 2014.

IF they need small denoms between now and then (the next 6 months), assuming the float is announced shortly, then they will use the ones that were printed in 2003 and that are sitting at the CBI for that purpose (existing small denoms of the same currency we hold.)

Bottom line: this is talking about the final stages in preparation to unfold the plan. This is ALL GOOD!     Enorrste

Punisher:            Thank you for that Enorstte. Things are looking good leading up to July 15th. Heck even if is after Ramadan Im still good

Tlar:       Enorrste, we are pretty close to the same mind set on this. The only difference is the amount that is outside of Iraq. I believe that it is much greater than 7 trillion if we consider what’s held by other countries in Asia and Europe.

The US alone has over 7 trillion if we are to believe what Dinar Trade says they have sold since the beginning and if we are to believe the US did an initial currency swap.

I believe the bulk of all the dinars were sold out of country by the Trade Bank of Iraq early on and either sanctioned by the CBI or they intentionally turned a blind eye in order to raise desperately needed hard currency to begin Iraq’s rebuilding.

It wasn’t until sometime in early 2010 that Shabibi attempted to put a clamp on dinar sales out of country when he made it illegal to bring in or take out large sums of cash. At about the same time the US stopped allowing its soldiers to bring duffle bags of dinar home.

If caught trying to bring it into the US or out of Iraq, it would be confiscated. Up until 2010 it was katy bar the door on dinar sales. At about the same time at the end of 2009 in November, the big banks here in the US mostly stopped selling dinar.

That’s about the same time all the scam articles started to appear. At the time to me it looked like a well coordinated effort to stop dinar sales on both sides of the ocean.

Obviously enough had been sold. Maybe to much. Think of it this way. For every trillion dinars sold they would have to have that much more in reserves in order to raise the value.

Enorrste, I may be wrong but I think if there was ever more than 8-10 trillion in Iraq, Syria and Iran, it would surprise me. The rest is out of country IMHO.

Kaperoni:            Based on these examples, we then have to hope that the dinar then is “collected” in country. The heavy dollarization going on appears to support that theory.

Enorrste:   Tlar, I don’t believe there are any “true” numbers regarding the amount of dinars outside the country. However, if you read over my post you will see that my point is that it doesn’t matter how many dinars are outside of Iraq since they won’t be coming back to Iraq in any case. Therefore, if the number is higher outside the country it just means that the withdrawal process will be that much easier, and quicker.

Zigmeister: We don’t know for sure if there was an initial currency swap, it could be a story. I wonder if it matters in the end, because they knew people would invest in dinar.   At the end of the day, dinar would land in foreign countrie’s reserves when it actually had value.

I did not realize it was in 2009 the scam stories began, along with shutting off the dinar valve. I wonder how many people got out of the dinar since then? It seems to me this was very orchastrated from the beginning to now.

Punisher: When one really stops and thinks about this entire thing, the plan is/was brilliant.

Carrello: Could be, Punisher. There tends to be big plans when big money is involved.

Zigmeister:         Here’s to a sliver of the pie! *clink*

Carrello: Yes, and braces for the dog. 8)

Tlar: Enorrste, you are probably correct in that we will never really know how much is out of Iraq, but I respectfully disagree that it makes no difference. Depending on what measure Iraq uses to determine value of the dinar, the dinar out of country will probably not be counted as part of M1 or M2.

Revbo did a rough guestimate based on 80 billion in reserves against a total of 28.7 billion (33 trillion dinar) in actual currency value that the CBI has ever had out. Forget that this number has to be less now because of the buy back. In real terms all the dinars out will be in one of two categories.

The first category, in country and circulating dinars in the Middle East, and category two, those out of country buried in central banks around the world. As you have said and I agree, these dinars will not be coming back to Iraq.

They are not considered as part of M1 or M2 as M1 and M2 ignore both reserves in country and out of country as part of their number. It is also my understanding that these numbers also don’t look at reserves held in local banks in Iraq to back daily transactions, nor does dinr held overseas have anything to do with inflation.

My point is this, I do not believe Iraq has to consider non circulating currency that resides in central banks around the world when they back their currency. This is dormant capital with no velocity and has no effect on M1 or M2.

I am pretty sure Iraq has to only cover the dinar circulating no matter where it circulates. Today it circulates in Iraq, Iran and Syria because these three countries have accepted the dinar. The number of dinars that are in these three countries IMO is all the dinar that Iraq must back.

IMO, going back to last yea,r we know Iraq had 4 trillion based on what Saleh had said.

I believe that 4 trillion is more than either Syria or Iran has had at anytime because Iraq is the country of origin for dinar. I think we can safely assume both Syria and Iran have had less than four trillion each at their height of trade.

That as why I am so interested to get that number as close as possible but either way, if my premise is correct, then at most Iraq needs to only cover the 12 trillion dinar that were/are circulating in the Middle East. Normally I have ended posts with “I hope I am wrong”. This one I would like to end with, I hope I am right.’   I love your thoughts on this.

  ReVbo: OK, let’s take the revised numbers based on circulated dinars, then. (Thanks for the shout out, tlar. You and Kap and Steve are my heros in this thing, and I really appreciate all you do.)

So now, we’ve got 12 trillion dinars to deal with. By by rough guestimate formula yesterday, we’ve now got every dinar in circulation covered almost 7 times.

That means, CBI can take the dinar to 174 dinars to the dollar and still be covered 100%. 666% ROI ain’t bad, but a far cry from what we’re looking for, so let’s go back to the fractional reserve standard.

Take the full cover rate and divide it by ten to get 17.4 dinars to the dollar. Now, we’re getting somewhere, and we’ve got 5.74 dinars to the dollar, or a little better than a nickel.

Again, if they change the standard, all bets are off and it just depends on how much of their massive amounts of in-ground assets Iraq is willing to put up as collateral,

because, let’s face it, that’s really what an asset backing is all about. Under tlar’s new numbers, if they were to back this money with, say, just a trillion dollars worth of oil, which is about 6.66% of their proven reserves, with 12 trillion dinars in circulation,

and based on a 10% reserve and the $80 billion in cash they have on hand, we come to almost a dollar ($0.96) per dinar. You can do the math if they put up more of that oil, but you can see where we can get to a pretty darn high rate without much effort.     Ordo ex Chao

Punisher: Tlar, lets say you are right about the amount, what is your conclusion…..

Tlar:       Punisher, my conclusion is that Iraq only has to cover dinar in Iraq, Syria and Iran. We know when they started the buy back Iraq had 4 trillion dinar circulating as this number was told to us.

The unknown is how much (best guestimate) is still in Iran and Syria. I believe with the following facts we can get a pretty close estimate. Import and export figures between Syria and Iraq and Iran and Iraq.

Granted under normal circumstances it would be hard to determine how much dinar is in these two countries but we have an edge. At the point that Iran and Syria were put under sanctions and Shabibi declared Iraq would no longer accept their currencies in trade or in the Iraqi banking system, all trade was done in dinar and USD.

So as an example if Iran sold 5 billion worth of product to Iraq in 2010 and they bought 3 billion from them, then we can assume that Iran had a 2 billion net gain with most of it being done in dinars.

If this was an isolated year and we knew that Iraq had four trillion dinar and Iran had kept two trillion dinar, the total would be 6 trillion dinar that would be out for 2010 between both countries.

Now lets assume that the bank bought and retired a net trillion dinar during the same period. That would leave a net 5 trillion still considered circulating in the Middle East.

When we throw in multiple years and another country (Syria) the equation becomes more complicated. We need (which I am currently researching) total import exports between Iraq and Syria, and Iraq and Iran for the multiple years we are researching and we need the amount of USD sold and the amount of dinars retired.

Carrello graciously put together the bank figures (dollars sold going back to October 2012). I am attempting to put together the import export figures. I will massage them and see what comes out of it.

As I said in the above post, I believe the number of dinars that Iraq must cover in order to do an RV is much less than we have thought. The CBI has maximized the potential for RV by cleaning up the markets. Value of the dinar is impacted every time they sell another dollar at auction.

My goal is to roughly try to determine how many real dinars are still out. The challenge is that this is a moving target. Iran and Iraq buy from and sell to each other daily and the bank is still buying back dinar.

So I have arbitrarily chosen October first 2012 as the start date through today. I believe if we can see reasonable numbers that are somewhat close, we will be able to make some conclusions as to where we are in the process. If not, it will be my exercise in futility.

ReVbo: Woops, meant to say 5.74 cents to the dinar, not 5.74 dinars to the dollar.

Punisher: Thanks for the answer Tlar. We should all have some idea of where we are from your findings hopefully. I personally believe we are close from all the news over the last two weeks. The news has been so postive unlike anything I have seen in this investment from the over 3 years I have been in this.

Tobyboy: Tlar, I did some calculation the cash dollars on auctions    Oct – Dec 2012 $1,464,501,000

Jan-Mar 2013 $1,623,380,000   ( April ) $1,127,646,000 ( May ) $1,164,559,000 )

June 1 to 18, 2013 $727,200,000   Total $6,107,286,000 Oct 2012 to June 18 2013

Hope this helps you this is the cash amts only,   Tobyboy

Tlar:       Thanks toyboy. That is pretty much the same number Carrello came up with.

Tobyboy: Tlar Good Notice how the sales are really big for this month of June with the cash sales. Should be getting ready to RV this thing real sooon .

Punisher: Tobyboy, looks to me an rv is imminent.