As has often been the case in Iraq, developments in recent weeks have inspired both pessimism and optimism.

On the one hand, an increase in bomb attacks – with 300 fatalities in April – raised fears of a return to the peak in levels of violence seen of 2005-2006. And events in neighbouring Syria have served to heighten nerves.

However, on the economic front, there has been a steady flow of positive news. Fortunately, investors seem to be focusing on this, and taking a long-term view, with the stock market holding firm. This is important as Iraqi companies will increasingly turn to capital markets in coming years to build scale and seek to fulfill their potential.

Firstly, global oil majors continue to pour money into the development of key oil fields, which is vital for long-term economic stability. BP allocated $2.85 billion to further develop the Rumaila oilfield this year, up from $2.2 billion last year. Exxon Mobil is spending $1.65 billion on the West Qurna 1, slightly up on the $1.6 billion spent last year.

Iraq aims to raise oil production to 6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2017 from the current 3.1 million, which should fund a huge programme of spending on social and physical infrastructure.

On the micro level there are also signs that the grassroots Iraqi economy is starting to hum. For example, Al Mansour Bank, in which Qatar National Bank (QNB) has a majority stake, has just reported loan growth of 12 percent in the first quarter, compared to a year earlier. However, with deposits expanding more than four-fold from a year earlier, the scope for lending should be much higher.

Consumerism is also clearly on the rise. Baghdad Soft Drinks, a distributor of Pepsi, reported a 28 percent rise in first quarter sales, while telecoms operator AsiaCell recorded an 18 percent rise in sales in 2012, with the number of customers up 12 percent. Both companies have rewarded investors with large dividend payouts, giving yields of 5.5 percent and 9.1 percent respectively.

With oil revenues rising, Iraq’s parliament passed the country’s biggest ever budget in early March, albeit following months of wrangling, mainly because of disputes over oil revenues between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the central government.

The $118.6 billion budget for 2013 is 18% is more than last year’s, with 93% of revenue coming from oil exports. Some $45.5 billion has been earmarked for investment, with priority given to energy, security and public services.

Unfortunately, Iraq’s ministries have not had a great track record on disbursement, especially on “soft infrastructure” such as education, health and utilities – where around half of budgets in the last couple of years were not spent. In a chicken-and-egg scenario, these are the areas that ordinary Iraqis believe will most improve their lives, and help reduce sectarian tension, yet they are the hardest to implement because of political rivalry and the security situation.

If the government can turn this around and begin to roll out investment projects effectively, the positive economic developments may start to drown out the negative news.

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5-29-13 Almada News: Pulled out of the political crisis and the worsening security collapse because of the bombings, killings and kidnappings, the economic situation in the country, said real estate brokers and owners shows a sale the most prominent is the recession that hit the country in years.

Underscoring the many regions of the population of the Karkh district of Baghdad, declining prices of their properties because of the strict measures taken by security forces for weeks, experts talk about the decline of trading indicators in the various sectors of the economy and investment because of the wave of violence that recorded their highest levels in years.

He says Nadim Ameri gallery owner to sell cars in the Karrada district’s (range) “The car market in Baghdad since more than 4 months is retarded, and there is no demand by the citizens to buy cars,” adding that the exhibition did not witness sale of one car for weeks, due to a decline purchasing movement.

Even famous auto shows sale in Baghdad in areas Baya, granular and witnessed a renaissance pointing recession, in what is expected to increase the bombing of the granular shows the first Tuesday of the market decline.

In contrast, citizens in the Karkh emphasize lower prices for their homes, dip buying and selling homes, especially in Sedea and the session and Adhamiya and Amiriya because of the security measures taken by the army and police at the entrances of these neighborhoods, which takes accessible long hours because of a port or implementers only to enter and exit.

He says Raad Uwaini who offered his house, in the notification area west of the capital, for sale for weeks for the “long” that he left his home for nine months because of fear for his family of tension security located in Baghdad, and chose housing in the Karrada district near the place of his work, despite the fact that rental rates in this region is high, but he prefers the security of his family targeting risk, he said. He adds Uwaini he offered his house for sale at any price appropriate to be able to buy another in the area safer, but not related one to buy the house, while he said that brokers property who make their living on the crises they offered a price too low is not commensurate with the price of Casablanca true.

The economist says Bassem Jamil Anton “long” that the political crisis and the current violence would be a major cause of the low rate of investment and the sale and buy houses and cars and goods, will fall Activity foreign companies operating or intending to work in the country.

Anton adds that “the past few months have seen an economic recession and paralysis pointing, likely to continue in the case of failed government and the responsible authorities in finding solutions to the political and security crises.

According Antoine that “the security situation based reflected negatively on the commercial movement of markets, restaurants, clubs, and purchasing power,” asserting the existence of areas affected by the reality of security in terms of real estate prices, saying that “the country has not seen such a slump since 2003, after that there was a marked improvement the purchasing power of the citizen, and the relative recovery of the Iraqi economy, after the fall of the former regime.

Antoine confirms that “the reluctance of the economic activity will lead to a scarcity of goods in the local markets and the lack of import and lack of employment opportunities, pushing the faint souls to exploit the situation and raise the prices of goods and commodities.”

He explained that “the lack of economic activity in general will reflect negatively on economic growth and on future plans also affect the implementation of construction projects and the five-year plans and the deterioration of the budgets of the country.”

For his part, linked to a member of the Finance Committee deputy secretary Hadi recession winning three basic factors, some related to the security situation and political and economic instability of the provinces where demonstrations.

Hadi said in a statement to the “long” to “areas of Kirkuk and Mosul, Anbar, Diyala, Salahuddin, became semi parked commercially, and produced food and Ocodeh crises in those provinces, which is a serious indicator on the high rate of poverty.

And corrects Hadi said “the instability of security and political situation in all parts of the country to make them environment repellent for foreign investment and unsafe on the domestic investor,” calling to unite the political and non-sectarian and create a suitable environment to revitalize interests that contribute to the stability of the system as a whole.

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