Family and friends are having a great time at the grand daddy of all Oktoberfest in Munchen and it is nice just to be in a festive city surrounded by may who enjoy this time of year alike. Ein Prosit, Ein Prosit Der Gumutlichkeit – Ein Prosit, Ein Prosit Der Gumutlichkeit – Ticky Tocky Ticky Tocky hoy hoy hoy!!! – still rings in my ears from yesterday over and over again…..lol…lol….
It will be nice to return to our quiet village in the mountains once again. As you can see ich bin kein city girl.
I am now sitting in meinen zimmer writing this news letter. Everyone is anxious to leave hotel to touring so I must make this very short today and to get ready….sorry.
Remember early October is coming upon us very quickly. There is a target in place and I believe they are pushing forward to attempt to meet it. The big question is will Iraq be ready?
Today is Saturday September 26th and still no RV. I also want to say that when Iraq is ready to revalue their currency and come back as an international player it will just happen. NOTHING WILL STOP IT. There are no boogie men, conspiracies or foreign countries with issues holding it back each weekend, as some make you believe.
The reason we have not seen the RV yet, even though there has been many windows of opportunity planned (and I will not deny these planned windows), is because THEY HAVE NOT YET COMPLETED THE AGREED TO REFORMS! The PTB will continue to hold it back until Iraq meets its obligations even though they plan these RV windows ahead of time. Remember Iraq too wants to be ready and has set many self imposed issues that needed addressing.
We see these issues too in the reforms (corruption, security, stability). I can not shout it out any louder or any simpler. It is not rocket science…is it? THEY MUST COMPLETE THE AGREED TO REFORMS!
Let’s recap what has happened this week and how it relates to the RV.
If there could be any theme in this week’s news it would be Abadi trying to defend his reforms in front of his political opponents. Who are these opponents? .
Of course we all know these opponents very well, don’t we? Do I have to spell then out?
It is the Dowa party and all those corrupt government officials now being caught in their web of lies, deception, and corruption. It is the Maliki syndrome in Iraq as they believed it would be a FREE FOR ALL after the USA and coalition pulled out in December 2011.
They figured a sure thing for a third term for Maliki and a full blown dictatorship was just around the corner. At least that is what they thought they could do.
But the plan did not work out when the USA finally pulled support from Maliki before the 2014 elections. It has been downhill ever since for these gangsters. But they are not yet gone and still can have much influence.
So they are now paying the price as this corruption could not last forever as it could (and nearly did) destroy Iraq both economically and security wise. But those culprits on the very top (those mainly responsible) have not yet paid the price. Their turn is coming soon. This is what the citizens really want and cry out for in the demonstrations. This is what must take place.
It is important to note there must be a true reconciliation in the Iraqi government if they are to get their country back, at least that is what Abadi signed up to help re-establish in 2014.
So this week the news was very slow. By slow I do not mean there was not a lot of news but it was not the news of the finality of the many much needed reform laws that we expect to see. We were told these laws would be in parliament for their final votes in the coming weeks after Eid. Eid is now ending.
Every time there is a holiday there is much confusion about the timeframe in this dinar investment community. Once again I hear many different views about Eid al-Adha holiday dates. I want to clarify these dates now. .Eid began on Thursday 9/24 and extends through Sunday 9/27 this year.
Each year it is different timeframes as it depends on time of equinox. Iraq themselves have told us in many of their articles do not expect much during this timeframe so this is why the “official” news is very slow. Every year we must go through this same confusion. Why must it be so?
However I expect an explosion of news come next week since Eid ends on Sunday 9/27. This is just 3 days from the end of the month. Some are saying Eid ended on Thursday. Really? I don’t know which calendar they are using.
What are these last remaining laws we wait for?
As I have said in my recent news letters we wait for:
1) the announcement of the formal finality of the Federation Council;
2) the National Guard law and specifics to be announced;
3) the Amnesty law (they did tell us this week they released many political prisoners) Could this already be done? I have been told it was signed and done but no official word.
4) the announcement of the Judicial Reforms bill being passed and implemented;
5) the passing of the Investment law (see article below);
President Masuam told us earlier this week that FULL RECONCILIATION would be completed and announced after Eid. This coincides with the timetable we have been previously told.
But what does this “full reconciliation” mean exactly?
I will only relay to you what I have been told when I asked the same question to an Iraqi government official. I was told that full reconciliation means that all the critical needed reforms would be completed.
These are those “low hanging fruits” that Iraq referred to as “hasty” reforms that could be implemented in the shortest time period to give them the highest impact on the corruption and political stability. These were the agreed to (negotiated) items.
These reforms needed laws to implement them and so how do we know if they are or are not completed unless we watch for the laws to coincide with them? So this is now what we watch for.
How important is the Investment law?
I presented an article below that should answer this question for you. It is an excellent article and I quote from it – “ it will raise the performance of financial institutions and contributes to the Iraqi money management correctly “.
Also I want to add this too and I quote from the article again – “the law will be presented to a vote after the Eid al-Adha holiday to be passed.”
They also tell us the hold up was due to many amendments that had to be added to the new law. Remember this law has been initially written around 2012 so it has been kicking around for a long time.
Many knew it would never pass as it was written by the then current council of ministers under Maliki administration. I believe they first had to clean up the corruption in the seven state owned banks in Iraq (mainly the Rafidian and Rasheed banks).
So there was work to be done first but it had to wait to get Maliki out of the way first. Now in retrospect we see that these revisions were necessary to move forward. So what do they have to do that we still don’t know about?
I believe these last remaining reform laws are that “basket of laws” that will hit us all at once very suddenly after the Eid holiday.
When I get excited it’s not because some “guru” told me to get excited because his “secret” source whispered in his ear the bank screens were loaded or the exchange centers are manned and ready (as we have heard this story for years now every weekend). Instead it’s because I have real proof and I have presented this proof to you over these last many months. Did you listen to me? Did you pay attention?
We are in the absolute best window ever to see Iraq have a significant increase in the value of their currency sooner than later. But this increase is just a small part of the overall effort left in the process.
First we must see the lower denominations begin to be distributed in exchange for the US Dollars (de-dollarization). Then we can expect to hear some news from the CBI as the project to delete the zeros begins again. Items to watch for in the news.
Remember back in March the finance committee did announce they gave the CBI the “green light” or go ahead for financial reforms. So they have been moving in this direction slowly but surely ever since.
So even though we here news of windows for an RV each weekend we must use our common sense that God has given us too and ask this question – How can Iraq RV if they have not even begun to
1.distribute the lower denominations or
2.announcing the continuation of the project to delete the zeros (said it would begin in early 2016 again),
3. what about the 50k and 100k notes? They said they would begin using the 50k notes before the end of the year.
These are all tell tell signs that we moving in the right direction as we get closer to the end of the year.
So let’s now review about that happened this past week and then I will conclude the news.
IRAQI PM: PROTESTS ARE WAKE-UP CALL TO MEND POLITICAL SYSTEM
Tuesday, 22 September 2015 10:09
The Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi warned yesterday that the protests in the country are a wake-up call to help the government address the imbalances in the political system.
Al-Abadi said: “The fight against the political quota system is an essential part of the fight against corruption because partisan or personal loyalty leads to favoring loyalists instead of professionals and this injustice destroys society.”
“The Iraqi people may tolerate the difficult economic conditions but they will not tolerate having a privileged group that enjoys special treatment and protections,” he added.
“I said from the beginning that the demonstrations are a warning that helps us address the imbalance in our political system and to cooperate to address the issue of salaries and protections.
If the government is responsible for protecting its officials from terrorism, this does not mean having armies of protection personnel of up to 800 people. The country needs combat troops to defend the homeland and the people.”
Comments may be made at the end of Part 2 Thank You