5-9-2014 Newshound Guru Tlar It is my opinion that anyone who holds the currency will benefit. I believe the nominal rate is what they will change first (delete the leading zeros) so whatever that turns out to be, that will be the value of the physical dinar. If the nominal rate is changed to one to one, the million dinars you hold will be worth 1 million US before the taxes are paid. For those that hold accounts in Iraq, it is my belief that they will not lose or gain in value. Right or wrong that's my belief.
5-9-2014 Intel Guru Mnt Goat Bad News: Having just said the good news I also have to say I do not believe a word of it. Yes – everything is set to go and can go successfully if they are allowed to continue the RV process to completion...my contact has already told me they intend to once again stall the process...until Maliki’s mandate with the government as prime minister is over on June 14 2014... Do not look for the RV prior to this date. It has nothing to do about the elections other than he knows his days are numbered and he will not get a third term. He is attempting desperately to get his hands on more money. The 2014 budget too will not pass until he is gone... We wait and see what will happen this weekend. [post 2 of 2]
5-9-2014 Intel Guru Mnt Goat Good News: I am being told that from Thursday 5/8 until Sunday 5/11 we are in an excellent window to see the rollout of the revaluation. Note I said revaluation and not reinstatement. As I have said before they are going to trigger off a revaluation using the reinstatement rate from 4/26 and a starting point. I did tell you previously that this might happen and so it is now in play. I am told plans are being made for us to be at the banks next week. This extension given by the IMF bought them some time to reorganize and setup for this process. [post 1 of 2....stay tuned]
5-9-2014 Intel Guru MarkZ [what Defcon level do you put this at right now?] 1 for the next week. [are we looking to a certain individual that will make the announcement for the GCR?] I am yes. It would be irresponsible of me to say who that is though. For the record folks...I do not believe anyone is holding this up any longer. [is it true that the funds for the RI/RV are in Iraq?] I am told the money for the rv exchange US holders is already here. I can't comment on rates. We shouldn't worry about rates though. They look to be great and fair. Let's just focus on DONE. [post 2 of 2]
5-9-2014 Intel Guru MarkZ [seems to me that since the original plan was to have an RV and the Dinar was the linchpin of the GCR, that this has to still come in as an RV and not as an RI. The other countries all signed off on the rates already and were agreed to and it would have to all be redone. We are looking at an RV...?] That is why Maliki pulling the RI stunt forces the RV/reset action. A pain in the ass logistically but a needed push as I see it. [if M is not the new PM, can the new PM rescind the RI when he takes office?] If he could get the CBI to agree but he won't. IMO. [post 1 of 2....stay tuned]
5-9-2014 Newshound Guru Adam Montana [I read...that the Iraq election ballots will take about a month to count and tally. If this is true then would you say that we wont see anything as far a real RV progress until those ballots are fully counted and a new PM is elected?] I think that's a reasonable assumption. Here's something to consider, though: Say things are looking in Maliki's favor, and the opposition starts to get riled up. Maliki calls the RV...That would completely destroy his opponent's chances of any kind of recall or anything else, wouldn't it? [Do you think they will wait to pass the budget until after the new GOI is seated?] No, I don't see too much delay in this process.
5-9-2014 Newshound Guru Kaperoni ...thinking a reduction in auction sales means they are about to raise the value of the dinar. Wrong! The CBI is not compliant with the IMF. Until they prove they can do what is asked of them (via the Article IV Consultation) the CBI is not moving to Article VIII nor a new exchange regime. The recent statement that said "mid year" or June does not imply a change in value of the dinar, but compliance with the IMF. Nothing more. If the CBI meets that goal of mid year or June, we still need laws to be passed for economic and banking reform. There is much to be done yet before we can hope for an increase in the value of the dinar. [post 2 of 2]
5-9-2014 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article: "Decline in central bank sales of dollar at the end of the auction week" We will have to wait and see if they remain low. It makes no sense when these banks are currently nothing more than money exchangers so commissions are important to them. We can guess that the issuance of new dinar may have curbed some desire to use dollars in the market. But the Iraqi economy still needed dollars for imports. Why they are low is anyone's guess but these auctions are important to maintain the exchange rate and...to reduce the spread from Official Rate to Market Rate. If anything, I was expecting the number of banks and money exchangers participating to increase over the coming weeks - not decrease. [post 1 of 2....stay tuned]
5-8-2014 Intel Guru Angelquest [any chance we will be done by June 5?] WE can hope but much being processed. [do you see this going to the 15th?] that is a good date but a lot needs to happen by then. [has iraq grown enough to support a rate any where close to an r/i ?] Yes they have and well beyond.
5-8-2014 Intel Guru MarkZ [Where do you feel we stand on the HCL agreement and article 140?] I think it is already done and we will see the 'announcements' shortly. [Do you feel the HCL agreement is more important than article 140 or they hold the same importance?] same in my book. [Forex banker says everything agreed upon today and it should go down today yet...Scale of 1 to 10. Chances?] 5 today but much higher tomorrow IMO. Weekends make the logistics much easier. That is only an educated opinion though.
5-8-2014 Newshound Guru Tlar We should get what ultimately will be definitive results on a preliminary release from the Election Committee on Monday. There was a 70% turnout of eligible voters in Abar and a 77% turned out in Basra. Iran who tried to once again get Iraq to pick Maliki for a third term by pressuring the blocks last week to back him has found that their push has fallen on deaf ears.
5-8-2014 Newshound Guru Adam Montana [...what else Iraq is waiting on to finally declare a new rate for their currency. Iraq was released from Chapter 7 last June. We thought once we got into 2014 something would happen.] Chapter 7 was a major hurdle and that is cleared. We're simply waiting for the elections to be finalized, an HCL resolution, and an RV!
5-8-2014 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 I HAVE BEEN TOLD TODAY SOME FACTIONS ARE TRYING TO HOLD THE CBI AND IMF UP IN THE RELEASE. I DON'T THINK AT THIS POINT THEY WILL BE SUCCESSFUL ACORDING TO THE SOURCES THAT GAVE ME THE INFORMATION THAT IT CAN POP UP AT ANYTIME NOW.
5-8-2014 Newshound Guru Tlar The first article indicated they were waiting on the GOVERNMENT ELECTIONS TO BE SETTLED. It also said WE ARE READY to delete the zeroes. He also said that it is imperative that Iraq be prepared BEFORE HAND (not a float) to change the accounting systems in Iraq. The second article from Turki stated WE ARE READY and WE WILL DO THIS BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS YEAR. Next week should be a good week. If as expected Maliki is out, we should see movement fast...we ARE close. [post 2 of 2]
5-8-2014 Newshound Guru Tlar There is a move a foot to get the budget passed by next week. The stopper we know is the Kurds but once the votes come in next week it is my opinion that the present parliament will negotiate, read and vote on the budget quickly. Since Friday Turki has talked to the press now twice. What he stated is astronomical to me for a guy who has said virtually nothing about this project for so long. [post 1 of 2....stay tuned]
5-8-2014 Intel Guru TD First of all there has been NO RI or any rates appearing at "select countries" or banks. Second, a new government will be formed (without Maliki) shortly after May 26th. 3rd) Turki is staying on no matter what and the CBI has agenda items to rollout in June. One can only hope that currency reform in some form or another is on the list...
5-8-2014 Intel Guru MarkZ [is it time 4 rv now?] I am looking for it soon! [do you feel the rate will come out at 1-1 or will the rate be the prewar rate of 3.22 plus inflation?] I have been cautioned against giving any kind of rate. I expect higher than a dollar though. [are rates still showing on the bank screens?] Three bankers I spoke with today said yes, Two said no. 4 different banks total. [do you think this will occur early mornings or in the day est time?] early morning is easier logistically.
5-8-2014 Newshound Guru Adam Montana [...news article states they are inviting parliament members to work on the budget in the next 2 days. The article was dated 5 May. Other news articles state working on the budget in the next month. ...opinion?] My opinion is that it needs to be done soon, they want it to be done soon, but it's probably going to be a little late. Anytime they say "2 days" I automatically adjust to "1 week". : )
5-8-2014 Newshound Guru Stryker All road maps seem to be leading to economic reform and a major change in the monetary structure of the Iraqi dinar but keep in mind that it is Iraq we are dealing with and anything can happen to change this course. Where I believe there is a well-defined plan in place, some great leaders to see it through and some solid coalitions in agreement to get them there I urge everyone to be casually optimistic but if what I point out here day comes to true we will be having an early July RVQ [RV?].
5-8-2-14 Intel Guru MarkZ [Who is ultimately responsible for the approval and final release of a currency release to the international community? IMF, Iraq, US, someone else?] As I understand it the IMF will release it to regional level and once the controller of the north american banking block pulls the trigger then the world will acknowledge the reset. [today someone indicated WF was showing dinar, Zim, VND, rupiah at the screens on hold..your thoughts?] Highly likely, I spoke with some other bankers that said they had a rate showing. [what is the end date for this to go? Is it this month?] I believe it to be this month. [vnd, zim, rupiah all with dinar?] I am looking for them at the same time.
5-8-2-14 Intel Guru MarkZ Iraq is supposed to release it's budget tomorrow [Thursday] which we expect to hold the new rate. [what proof do we have the there was actually an RI in Iraq? And, if there was an RI how long can it go one until an rv is triggered for us in the US?] Multiple confirmations on RI. The problem is a country can RI or even rv internally and the rest of the world does not have to acknowledge it. Especially when the currency is not internationally recognized. The key here is for the IQD to become an internationally recognized currency and then the RI or rv surfaces everywhere. [post 1 of 2....stay tuned]
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A whole lot happened over the weekend
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