Timing is Everything
1-7-14 Stryker: [Q. Steve: Early, early this am, I was listening to your blog and then heard a bombshell from you. ONLY the 'luxury' goods tariff went into effect on Jan 2, 2014 and the Iraqi gov't. That, if I remember you accurately would only affect the 'wealthy' since they are the only ones buying luxury goods. However, you then added another piece that it might not be until June 2015 until ALL goods, non-luxury included, would be affected.
If there are no tariffs on the average people, then as they have done for the past 10 or even 30 years under Saddam, they can keep the currency worthless, since the poor are still the poor and even if the GOI 'claims' that they want the Iraqi dinar to be the equal of the American $$$ or the Kuwaiti dinar, nothing changes...that is, there is NO inflation, without the tariffs in place. But, once the tariffs hit, inflation if there is no RV of the dinar.
My question then is this. Will the GOI/Parliament/CBI do an RV before they are forced to, in 2015 in order to allow the people to be able to 'get ready' for these changes or will they do nothing?
Thanks - Dr. Tom]
A. The reason they have started to implement the tariffs in stages is to give them time to get everything done so they can RV the currency. I don’t think it will take until 2015 (the tariff law deadline) to implement what we/they need before they can and will RV (IMO) but as you can see they needed time. Good news is that there is a timetable that has started by the Luxury taxes application on Jan. 2.
Will the GOI/Parliament/CBI do an RV before they are forced to, in 2015?
I believe they will but that depends on the security issues and if they can overcome these new ql-Qaeda crisis and as soon as they do and no other issues pop up I believe we will see the RV.
Will they do nothing?
They can’t do nothing, time is running out and they know this. This is why we see Maliki and the other leaders trying to get things moving in the right direction. This is why (with the help of US weapons and Intelligence) on Dec. 22, 2013 they tried to control the terrorist activity along the Syria borders (security), did it work? Yes and No, it may of not worked the way they wanted it to but it did bring the terrorist to the surface and NOW if Iraq can stand on their own they will come out much stronger in the eyes of the world and in the Middle East.
We can only stand by and pray for the best outcome at this point.
The facts are where I base my opinions from, for what they’re worth!
Thanks for the questions.
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